Modeling Nigerian Electricity Generation and Consumption Pattern

Abstract

This study examined annual amount of electricity generated and consumed in Nigeria for the period spanning 1970 to 2012. The Box-Jenkins modeling approach was employed after the series were transformed to ensure stationarity using the first differencing method. The empirical results showed that ARIMA (1, 1, 0) and ARIMA (0, 1, 1) models fitted the electricity generation and consumption datasets adequately. The whiteness of the residuals from the models was verified using Ljung-Box methodology. The projections for both electricity generation and consumption for five years ahead were made with 80% and 95% confidence limits.