ON THE FORECAST OF CEREALS PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA

Abstract

The cereals production (CP) of Nigeria have great potentials that can contribute significantly to economic growth if well harnessed. The main goal of forecasting Time Series variable(s) is to improve productivity; which will in turn lead to increase in realizations. In this study, the CP was studied using the Box-Jenkins (1976) Methodology technically known as ARIMA modeling to model and forecast the series for the period of 2017 to 2026. The results Sowed that there was an upward trend albeit with fluctuations and the 1st difference of the series was stationary, meaning that the series was I(1). Base on the AIC and BIC selection criteria, the best model that explains the series was found to be ARIMA (1, 1, 1). Residual diagnosis of the model confirmed that the error was white noise, no correlation found and forecast of 10 years terms was made which indicates that the series will continue to increase with these forecasted time period.