Seasonal price variation analysis of palm oil: case study of Nigeria (2016–2022)

Abstract

To enhance the benefits derived from palm oil processing by the farmers, there is a need for the producers (farmers) and buyers of palm oil to understand the seasonal price for making informed decisions on when to buy and sell the commodity. In order to determine price at the appropriate time of the season, the study looked at the seasonal price variation analysis of palm oil and the relationship between producers and buyers. This was done by understanding buyers’ requirements, producers’ effort, measurements taken, and contracting with buyers’ credit from customers. A multiphase sampling strategy was used. Organized interviews and questionnaires were utilized to collect primary data, while the National Bureau of Statistics provided secondary time series data on the average monthly retail price of palm oil from 2016 to 2022. The need for bio-fuel, production growth, governmental regulations, market dynamics, and the seasonality of palm oil products are then identified by the study as important factors influencing palm oil price fluctua tion throughout the year. The study then suggests that there’s a need for economic diversification to reduce reliance on a single sector. This study will serve as a basis for future research on palm oil price variation analysis